朝韩“分手”近70年,想要“和好”意味着什么

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HONG KONG — How do you make up after a 70-year breakup? It’s not easy.

香港——分手70年后,你会怎么和好?这件事不容易。

South Korea says it has been in talks with North Korea and the United States to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, which was halted by an armistice, or truce, rather than a negotiated peace treaty, which means that the fighting ended, but the war did not.

韩国称一直在与朝鲜和美国商谈,希望正式结束1950~1953年的朝鲜战争。朝鲜战争是根据休战、或者说停战协议,而不是通过谈判达成和平协议停火的。这意味着战斗结束了,但战争还没有。

The prospects of such a deal are still unclear. While the outlines of a peace accord have been considered for decades, there are drastic differences this time. President Trump’s announcement that he would meet with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, could lead to the first-ever direct meeting between leaders of the two countries.

达成这样一份协议的前景尚不明朗。尽管和平协议的框架已经考虑了数十年,但这一次有着巨大的不同。特朗普总统宣布将与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)会面,这可能会促成两国领导人有史以来的首次直接会晤。

But first Mr. Kim will meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea this Friday in the Demilitarized Zone that divides their countries. The South’s declaration that a deal to end the war formally is under consideration has raised expectations for their meeting.

但金正恩首先会于本周五,在朝韩之间的非军事区与韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)会面。韩国宣称正式结束朝鲜战争的协议正在考虑之中,让外界对他们的会面充满期待。

A permanent pause in a bitter war

一场激烈战争的永久性停火

A peace deal would replace the armistice that ended combat, if not the outbreak of small-scale hostilities, on the Korean Peninsula but did not resolve the conflict between the two Koreas. The armistice was a military document, setting forth the terms for a cease-fire. A peace agreement would have been a more complicated political agreement.

和平协议将取代停战协定。停战协定结束了朝鲜半岛上的战事,尽管不时有小规模战斗爆发。然而,停战协定并没有解决两国之间的冲突。它是一份军事文件,阐明了停火的条件。和平协议会是一份更为复杂的政治协议。

After the end of World War II in 1945, Korea, which had been a Japanese colony, was divided into two zones. The Soviets occupied the north, while the Americans occupied the south.

1945年第二次世界大战结束后,曾是日本殖民地的朝鲜被一分为二。苏联占领北部,美国占领南部。

In 1948 the two sides formed their own governments, and in 1950 the North invaded the South. The United States led a United Nations force in alliance with the South, while China aided the North.

1948年,双方各自组建政府。1950年,朝鲜入侵韩国。美国率领一支联合国部队与韩国结盟,中国则援助朝鲜。

The 1953 armistice was signed at Panmunjom, a village in what became the Demilitarized Zone, by Lt. Gen. William K. Harrison, an American and representative of the United Nations forces, and Gen. Nam Il, who represented North Korea and the Chinese forces.

1953年的停战协定是代表联合国军队的美国中将威廉·K·哈里森(William K. Harrison)与代表朝鲜和中国的南日(Nam Il)大将在板门店村签署的。后来,板门店所在地成了非军事区。

It was signed later by the North Korean leader, Kim Il-sung; Gen. Mark W. Clark, an American who led United Nations troops; and Peng Dehuai, commander of the Chinese forces, who called themselves “volunteers.”

随后,朝鲜领导人金日成(Kim Il-sung)、领导联合国军队的美国上将马克·W·克拉克(Mark W. Clark),以及自称“志愿军”的中国军队的指挥官彭德怀在协议上签字。

The South promised to observe the cease-fire but did not sign because it held out hopes of unifying the Korean Peninsula.

韩国承诺遵守停火协议,但没有签字,因为它仍抱有统一朝鲜半岛的希望。

The armistice set out terms for prisoner exchanges and created the specifics of the Demilitarized Zone, the buffer dividing North and South that is two and a half miles wide.

停战协定列出了交换俘虏的条件,并制定了非军事区的细节。非军事区宽2.5英里(约合4公里),将朝鲜和韩国分隔开来,是一个缓冲地带。

What would replace the armistice?

取代停战协定的会是什么?

While discussions of a peace deal often refer to a “treaty,” a formal treaty would face significant obstacles. The North and South both claim to be the rightful government of the entire Korean Peninsula and representative of people on both sides. So a formal treaty would be met with significant questions of sovereignty.

尽管有关和平协议的讨论经常提到“条约”,但达成正式的条约会遇到很大障碍。朝韩双方都称自己是整个朝鲜半岛的合法政府,是双方民众的代表。因此,正式条约会遇到意义重大的主权问题。

And for the United States to sign would require the approval of Congress, another wrinkle.

并且美国要签署条约须得到国会的批准,这又是一个问题。

Instead, South Korea has hedged its descriptions, referring to the “establishment of permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula” as a goal.

韩国反倒避免进行描述,称自己的目标是“在朝鲜半岛上建立永久和平”。

That still allows plenty of room for a statement of peace. But it would be a start, not an end.

这依然给和平声明留下了大量余地。但这可能是一个开始,而不是结束。

“Whatever they call it: a peace declaration, a peace accord, even a peace treaty — it doesn’t mean we will all wake up and Korea is at peace,” said John Delury, an associate professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “It’s significant, but it’s embedded in a process. I would imagine the two Koreas can do something on their own to declare their own commitment to peace.”

“和平宣言、和平协议甚至和平条约,无论怎么叫,都不意味着我们一觉醒来,朝鲜半岛就和平了,”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)研究中国问题的副教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。“它意义重大,但要有一个过程。我想两国可能会独自做点什么,宣告自己致力于和平。”

What would a peace process look like?

和平进程会是什么样子?

A declaration could begin a peace process that would weigh more than the central questions of the North’s nuclear and missile programs. North and South Korea could agree to pull back their forces from the border and create some sort of system for inspections of each side to verify compliance.

和平进程可能由发表一项声明开始,该进程将比朝鲜的核计划与导弹计划的核心问题更重要。朝鲜和韩国可能同意从边界撤回部队,并建立某种对双方进行检查的系统,来验证双方是否遵守协议。

Other ideas that have been suggested in past years include setting up joint teams to remove some of the hundreds of thousands of land mines in the DMZ. And the zone itself, which is rich in wildlife thanks to its oddly protected status, could become a park and tourist destination for visitors from both sides.

过去几年中提出的其他想法还包括成立联合小组,扫除非军事区内数十万地雷中的一部分。这一区域因特殊的受保护状态而拥有丰富的野生动物,从而有可能成为公园和旅游胜地,吸引两国游客。

Precedents to build on

可借鉴的先例

The two sides have discussed a formal peace process before, a reminder that expectations should be kept in check.

双方此前亦曾经讨论过正式的和平进程,这提醒人们,应该抑制自己的期望值。

But it also means there are precedents to build on, including a “peace declaration” made at a 2000 summit meeting between Kim Jong-il, then leader of North Korea, and Kim Dae-jung, then president of the South.

但这也意味着有先例可供借鉴,其中包括时任朝鲜领导人金正日与时任韩国总统金大中于2000年的一次首脑会议上作出的“和平宣言”。

A 2007 meeting between Kim Jong-il and Roh Moo-hyun, then president of South Korea, concluded with a series of economic agreements and proposals for easing tensions along the western maritime border.

2007年,金正日与时任韩国总统卢武铉曾进行会晤,最终达成了一系列经济协议和缓解西部海上边界紧张局势的提案。

One noteworthy difference this time is that North Korea, which has long pushed for a peace accord with the United States while trying to undercut South Korea, has acknowledged a more important role for its neighbor this time, said Gordon Flake, a Korea specialist at the University of Western Australia.

西澳大利亚大学(University of Western Australia)的朝鲜问题专家戈登·弗雷克(Gordon Flake)说,这次有一个值得注意的区别:朝鲜此前一直在努力与美国达成和平协议,并试图打击韩国;这一次,它承认邻国扮演着更加重要的角色。

“All told, I’m deeply skeptical about what will happen,” he said. “But North Korea initiating conversation with the South first, that sequencing to me is a positive development.”

“总而言之,我对即将发生的事情深感怀疑,”他说。“但朝鲜首先开启同韩国的对话,我觉得这一顺序是一种积极的发展。”

朝韩“分手”近70年,想要“和好”意味着什么

In addition, the main parties have already taken steps that could improve the prospects for a more lasting peace. North Korea has not protested the annual war games that the United States and South Korea opened this month. The drills have been less highly publicized this year, with less focus on the strategic assets that most anger the North Koreans, like B-1 bombers flown from Guam.

此外,主要各方已经采取可以促进持久和平前景的措施。朝鲜并未抗议美国和韩国于本月开始的年度军事演习。今年的演习亦没有得到广泛宣传,并且没有把重点放在最能激怒朝鲜人的战略资产上,比如从关岛起飞的B-1轰炸机。

North Korea has said it will not demand the removal of American troops from the Korean Peninsula as a condition for giving up its nuclear weapons, Mr. Moon said. And South Korea said Friday that the two sides had installed what was being called the first hotline between their leaders.

文在寅说,朝鲜已经表示,它不会以要求美国从朝鲜半岛撤军作为放弃核武器的条件。韩国于周五表示,双方已经安装了一个通话系统,号称是两国领导人之间的第一条热线。