Yes, 2014 is an absolute total disaster just waiting to ignite. In 'Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end' we analyzed 10 major crash warnings since early this year. Since then, more incoming bogies raced across our radar screen. Ticking time bombs from Congress, the Supreme Court, sex, carbon emissions, Big Oil, NSA, IRS, Tea Party austerity. Relentless. Mind-numbing.
不错，2014年完全是一场灾难，只等着引爆。在《年内股市崩盘的概率有多大？》(Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end)一文中，我们分析了今年年初以来的10大崩盘征兆。之后，我们又不断发现了更多新的妖魔。它们有如嘀嗒作响的定时炸弹，来自国会、最高法院、性问题、碳排放、石油巨头、国家安全局(NSA)、国税局(IRS)、茶党式财政紧缩。接踵而至，让人无法招架。So many are tuning out. Denial. Truth is, bubbles are everywhere. Ready to blow. The evidence is accelerating, with only one obvious conclusion: Max 98% risk at a flashpoint. This 2014 crash is virtually guaranteed. There's but a narrow 2% chance of dodging this bullet.
那么多的人视而不见，不承认事实。真相是泡沫无处不在，随时准备爆掉。证据越来越多，结论只有显而易见的一个：泡沫破灭的风险最高可达98%。2014年这次崩盘几乎是铁定要发生的，躲过这枚子弹的概率只有区区2%。Here are the 10 bogies, drones targeting markets, stocks, bonds and the, global economy:
以下10种妖魔就像无人机一样，瞄准了股市、债市和世界经济：
1. Bubble With No Name Yet triggers the biggest crash in 30 years
1. “暂时没有名字的泡沫”引发30年来的最大规模崩盘All three of the big worldwide financial bubbles that have blow up in the last three decades have 'been fueled by the Fed keeping policy rates below the nominal growth rate of the economy far too long, ' says global strategist Kit Juckes of the French bank Societe Generale.
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)国际策略师基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)说，过去30年破灭的三个世界级金融大泡沫背后，都是“美联储(Fed)太久时间将政策利率维持在名义经济增长率之下”。The three bubbles: The Asian Bubble in the early '90s, Dot-com Bubble of the late '90s and what Juckes calls the Great Big Credit Bubble that triggered the 2008 Wall Street meltdown.
三个泡沫分别是：20世纪90年代初的亚洲泡沫，90年代晚期的互联网泡沫，以及在2008年引起华尔街崩盘的那次泡沫，朱克斯称之为“信贷大泡沫”(Great Big Credit Bubble)。Juckes warns that we're now trapped in the fourth megabubble fueled by the Federal Reserve in the last 30 years, since the rise of conservative economics. He calls this one, the Bubble With No Name Yet. OK, we invite you to send in your nomination to name the new bubble. But whatever you call it, do it fast, it's close to popping, like the Asian, Dot-com and Credit crashes the last 30 years.
朱克斯提醒，我们目前正处于第四次超级大泡沫之中，它是美联储在保守经济学兴起以来的30年时间里吹起来的。他将这个泡沫称为“暂时没有名字的泡沫”(Bubble With No Name Yet)。好，大家来给这个新泡沫命名吧。但不管你叫它什么，都要快点起名，因为它马上就要爆了，就像过去30年相继破灭的亚洲泡沫、互联网泡沫和信贷泡沫一样。2. Marc Faber's Doomsday warning on Bernanke's disastrous QE scheme
2. 麦嘉华对贝南克灾难性QE计划的末日警告Faber laughs at Bernanke's remark that the economy would be strong enough later this year so he could take his foot off the gas, that is begin 'tapering, or scaling back it's stimulative quantitative easing (QE) program later this year.' Yes, laughed.
贝南克(Bernanke)说今年晚些时候的经济将会走强，所以到时候他可以松开油门，也就是“在今年晚些时候开始减弱刺激性的量化宽松(QE)计划”。对此麦嘉华(Marc Faber)笑了。没错，他笑了。According to , 'embracing hyperbole, ' Faber 'suggested that QE would basically be a part of everyday life for the rest of our lives, ' adding that back in 2010 in the early days of Bernanke's disastrous experiment, Faber warned 'the Fed's headed for QE99.'
据报道，麦嘉华夸张地说，“QE基本上会成为我们下半辈子日常生活的一部分”。麦嘉华还说，2010年在贝南克灾难性试验的早期阶段，他曾给出“美联储奔向QE99”的警告。3. Economy is already crashing, GDP will get even worse in 2014-2016
3. 经济已经在崩溃，2014年到2016年的GDP将会更加难看Over at Huffington Post Mark Gongloff warns: That 'dramatic downgrade of U.S. economic growth in the first quarter revealed the economy's lingering weakness, exposed the folly of Washington's austerity obsession and slapped the Federal Reserve's newfound optimism right in the face.' And with politics deteriorating, it'll get worse.
马克•高恩洛夫(Mark Gongloff)在《赫芬顿邮报》(Huffington Post)上警告说：“一季度美国经济增长的大幅降级揭示了经济体挥之不去的疲弱，暴露了华盛顿执迷于财政紧缩的愚蠢，并给美联储最新的乐观打了一记响亮的耳光。”而随着政治局势的恶化，增长速度还会进一步放缓。Gongloff piles on the bad news about 2014: GDP 'grew at a 1.8% annualized pace in the first quarter ... revising down its earlier estimate of 2.4% growth ... The first quarter's dismal growth was at least better than the 0.4% GDP growth of the fourth quarter of 2012. But it was still far from healthy, and economists don't see it getting much stronger any time soon.' And that's real bad news for the markets going into 2014.
高恩洛夫罗列出一长串有关2014年的坏消息：“2013年一季度GDP年化增长速度为1.8%……向下修正了早前增长2.4%的估计……一季度的惨淡增长至少好于2012年四季度GDP 0.4%的增长，但离健康的增长仍然差了很多，经济学家预计短时间内也不会好到哪里去。”对进入2014年的市场来说，这是实打实的坏消息。4. Precious metals: 'Going dark! Economic cycles point downward'
4. 贵金属：“都在玩消失！经济周期下行”That's the headline flashing red warnings. After reviewing 20 cycles tracked by 20 other experts, concluded: 'There are many cycles that suggest a stock-market correction or crash is near ... Preparation is important. You still have a little time remaining before the 'window' closes!'
的这个标题发出了红色警报。在评估另外20名专家跟踪的20种周期之后，它总结道：“很多周期表明股市的调整或崩溃已经临近……未雨绸缪是很重要的。在‘窗口’关闭之前，你仍有一些时间！”Traders heading for the exits: 'Unsustainable trends can survive much longer than most people anticipate, but they do end when their 'time is up, at the culmination of their time cycles.' They analyzed more than 20 cycles: 'Nearly unanimously point to tectonic shifts in the months and years ahead.'
交易员们纷纷退出：“不可持续趋势苟延残喘的时间可以远超多数人的预期，但时候一到，在周期的顶点，它们还是会结束。”他们分析了20多种周期，“差不多无一意外地预示未来数月、数年将发生地壳运动”。Yes, they hedge on the timing but the ticking time bombs are loud, close. And 'the precious-metals crash, starting in April of 2013, was the first warning of what is coming globally.'
是的，在具体时间问题上它们给不出答案，但定时炸弹的嘀嗒声很响、很近。“始于2013年4月份的贵金属崩盘，是全世界即将发生的情况的第一个警告信号。”5. Gross warns: 'Ponzi Scheme! Tipping Point! Credit Supernova!'
5. 格罗斯警告：“庞氏骗局！临界点！信贷超新星！”Bond King Bill Gross admits, 'QE must end.' Trillions of cheap money 'has distorted incentives and inflated asset prices to artificial levels.' But now Gross says 'the Fed plan may be too hasty.'
债券大王比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)承认：“QE必须结束。”数万亿的低成本资金“扭曲了激励机制，将资产价格推高至人为水平”。但现在格罗斯说“美联储的计划可能过于仓促了”。What? Hasn't his firm made enough money off Bernanke's cheap money printing? So he's blaming 'lower growth on fiscal austerity, ' even as Bernanke keeps blowing up the Fed's balance-sheet bubble by trillions under the delusion he's America's savior because our dysfunctional Congress failed?
什么？他的公司利用贝南克印刷的低息钞票还没赚够？于是他将“增长速度降低”归咎于“财政紧缩”？就在贝南克错以为国会失灵、他才是美国的救星，所以继续以数万亿的规模吹胀美联储资产负债表泡沫的时候？Gross shifts, makes no sense: Just four months ago he warned the Fed is blowing a Credit Supernova, a new monetary bubble that would implode Bernanke's arrogant risky experiment putting America's future at great risk by bankrolling a Wall Street Ponzi Scheme and blowing a huge financial bubble.
格罗斯出尔反尔，不可理喻：四个月前他还警告说美联储正在构造一颗信贷超新星、一个新的信贷泡沫，这个泡沫将击垮贝南克资助华尔街庞氏骗局、吹起一个巨大金融泡沫、进而将美国之未来置于巨大风险之下的自负的、高风险的实验。